Eric provides his insights and opinions on the markets, investment strategies and other financial topics. The insights and opinions are of Eric Kulwicki and do not represent the views of any other person. Eric’s opinions may change at any time and posts listed may contain views that are outdated. Posts may be edited for clarity after the published date.
As an investment consultant and portfolio manager for different clients, I manage a number of different investment strategies. Once you understand my investment philosophy, you’ll understand why I manage these strategies the way I do. I share the investment commentary on these strategies here....
Equity and Bond Markets Continue to Rally Higher in Q3 Investors enjoyed solid performance from global equity and bond markets in Q3 as the global economy and corporate earnings continued to show growth, emboldening investors to embrace risk. The S&P 500 Index returned 8.12% and the MSCI ACWI...
SUMMARY U.S. Equities: I remain cautiously bullish on U.S. equities, favoring high-quality, growing companies even as large cap valuations look stretched. Performance could broaden to mid and small caps if the economy remains firm without higher inflation, the Fed signals rate cuts, and key technical...
It never seems to fail. These Wall Street investment strategists just seem to always be chasing their tails. Markets Decline -> Wall Street adjusts forecasted price targets lower. Markets Rally -> Wall Street adjusts forecasted price targets higher. On April 17th of this year, after the markets...
Equity Markets Rebound on U.S. Tariff Pause in Q2 Global equity markets were volatile in Q2, coinciding with President Trump’s tariff rates announcement and the subsequent pause in early April. Coming into Q2, equity markets were in decline as investors anticipated President Trump’s tariff “Liberation...
As an investment consultant and portfolio manager for different clients, I manage a number of different investment strategies. Once you understand my investment philosophy, you’ll understand why I manage these strategies the way I do. I share the investment commentary on these strategies here....
SUMMARY U.S. Equities: Maintain a slightly bullish view on U.S. equities, with recent dips providing tactical buying opportunities. Valuations, particularly for large caps, are less attractive to me at current levels, leading to an overall neutral stance from a fundamental valuation perspective. Small...
Here we go again. Wall Street strategists continue to chase the market, this time adjusting their year-end target forecasts for the S&P 500 Index lower after the market declined. Last year, they chased the market higher, increasing their forecasts after the market rallied. Below is a list of Wall...
As an investment consultant and portfolio manager for different clients, I manage a number of different investment strategies. Once you understand my investment philosophy, you’ll understand why I manage these strategies the way I do. I share the investment commentary on these strategies here....
Global Equity Markets Mixed While Bonds Rally in Q1 Financial markets began the year relatively strong, and investors were bullish following the Republican sweep of the November elections. As President Trump and his administration took office, investors were looking for direction. In a short...
SUMMARY Remember volatility? Here we are again. Following the Republican sweep in the November elections, investors were optimistic about the potential for a strong business environment under Republican leadership. I’m not going to rehash my commentary on and concerns with the potential issues...
Following the November U.S. elections, there was a general sense of investor bullishness based on what I considered a “default” belief that Republicans are good for the economy and risk assets. My concern was that even with a Republican sweep of the November elections, there was still a ton...
Strong Year for U.S. Equities; Bonds Were Mixed 2024 was another strong year for investors in the U.S. equity market. The S&P 500 Index ended the year up 25.0% and the NASDAQ 100 Index was up 25.9%. Smaller U.S. companies lagged large caps in 2024, with the Russell 2000 Index rallying...
As an investment consultant and portfolio manager for different clients, I manage a number of different investment strategies. Once you understand my investment philosophy, you’ll understand why I manage these strategies the way I do. I share the investment commentary on these strategies here....
Well, it’s that time of year again to take a look at Wall Street strategists’ year-end S&P 500 Index guesses (forecasts). Without looking, how do you think they did? For the record, I don’t envy the strategists’ job having to provide a price target for the S&P 500 Index,...
SUMMARY Well, the uncertainty of the elections is finally over, but the uncertainty of government policies remains. For the moment, investors are giving the Republican majority the benefit of the doubt. In simplistic terms, without doing any deep work and taking a leap of faith, investors...
I’ve had family and friends ask me about Bitcoin lately. I’m not surprised as the broader media picked it up that Bitcoin reached $100,000 in price. Since people I care about wanted to know what I thought, I felt the need to provide a note about it. As always, this isn’t advice, it’s...
This is the Part 2 follow-up to my first post on the elections, titled Don’t Let the Emotions of Politics Impact Your Investment Decisions posted on November 16, 2024. Now that we have confirmation that the Republican party controls the White House, Senate and House of Representatives, there is a higher...
Ok. Sometimes I really get an urge to say something. This is especially the case when it comes to politics and the financial markets. Politics can be emotional. I totally get it. I’m not a fan of the tribalism when it comes to politics. I have opinions, and so do others. Based on our own environment,...
Ok, I’m seeing more commercials for gold bars and coins, so I think it’s time to touch base on gold again. The Bloomberg Gold Subindex (Total Return) is up over 34% year-to-date as of 10/30/31, so gold-related companies getting on the commercial bandwagon now again to sell past performance...
As an investment consultant and portfolio manager for different clients, I manage a number of different investment strategies. Once you understand my investment philosophy, you’ll understand why I manage these strategies the way I do. I share the investment commentary on these strategies here....
Strong Equity and Bond Market Performance in Q3 Diversified investors were rewarded in Q3 as both equities and bonds rallied in the quarter. Supportive economic data and the anticipation of Fed rate cuts provided tailwinds for the financial markets. Equities were volatile during the quarter but...
The Milwaukee Brewers just lost the MLB Wild Card Series to the New York Mets. The Mets are moving on in the playoffs and the Brewers’ season has come to an end. I was actually at Game 1 with a great friend of mine, but Games 2 and 3 had me thinking about investing, as a lot of things do. When...
SUMMARY Volatility finally picked up in the equity markets over the last couple of months. Patient investors waiting for a better opportunity and looking to add risk may have been rewarded if they “bought the dip”. In August we finally had the correction in artificial intelligence-related...
Here Comes the Vol(-atility), Doo-Doo-Doo-Doo. Here Comes the Vol, and I say, it’s alright. A simple Beatles tune, but like the sun, volatility can rise up after being down for a while. But unlike the sun, the timing and frequency of volatility rising and falling are not consistently predictable....
As an investment consultant and portfolio manager for different clients, I manage a number of different investment strategies. Once you understand my investment philosophy, you’ll understand why I manage these strategies the way I do. I share the investment commentary on these strategies here....
Mixed Equity Performance, Solid Bond Income Support in Q2 Equity markets were mixed in Q2 as high-quality, large U.S. companies tied to technology and artificial intelligence continued to drive market performance. Other cyclical areas of the market were a bit more challenged. Bond investors continued...
SUMMARY Just choppin’ around, except for AI. Equity and bond markets continue to chop around, with continued strength in artificial intelligence-related technology/semiconductor stocks. Even stocks in the utilities sector rallied strongly for a bit under the narrative that artificial intelligence support...
Ok, so it’s getting old posting about this, but with the S&P 500 Index up strongly this year to 5308 on the index, we’ve started to see Wall Street strategists increasing their year-end forecast for the index. It never fails. Market is up = Strategists increase their year-end targets...
China is one of the largest economies in the world and its influence in the global economy is significant, so investors should consider paying attention. I manage a number of different strategies for clients, including strategies with exposure to international markets. Part of this exposure to international...
Solid Economic Data Helps Drive Risk Assets Higher in Q1 Equity and credit markets rallied in Q1 as strong economic data and solid corporate earnings provided investors with cover to continue to support risk assets. Last year economists and investors believed that higher interest rates could push...
Let's take a Q1 review of the strategies I manage for clients.
Equity markets continue to chug higher and bonds remain choppy, but there are some potential opportunities to consider for longer-term investors.
Feeling a bit nervous? Maybe fears of a sell off? Maybe even a little FOMO (fear of missing out)? The three popular U.S. large cap equity indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Industrial Average) have all recently hit new all-time highs. When you throw in dividends from a total return perspective,...
Ok, let’s try this again: Wall Street S&P 500 Index year-end forecasts for 2024. Remember last year, in my post dated Wall Street Strategists’ 2023 Outlook (Guess) on January 15, 2023, I listed various Wall Street firms’ forecasts for the year-end 2023 value of the S&P 500 Index....
Wall Street strategists dedicate significant time and effort to forecasting financial markets with some sense of precision. In my post last January 15th, 2023 titled “Wall Street Strategists’ 2023 Outlook (Guess)”, I indicated that Wall Street strategist forecasts were just guesses...
We made it to another year! It’s time to reflect on 2023 with all the ups and downs personally and in the financial markets. Hopefully we’ve all learned something and can take that forward to better ourselves and others. I love life and try to be a perpetual optimist, so here’s to a...
When investing, I know it can be tough to remain patient. Media headlines of doom or boom, with market swings of big drawdowns or huge rallies can make even the most experienced investors frazzled, let alone those without much day-to-day investment experience. My belief has been that at some point, inflation...
Just a reminder that I’m personally not a fan of investing in gold. I prefer investments that can generate cash flow directly and am less interested in hoping for price movement on assets. Gold doesn’t generate cash flow directly, so I don’t invest in it. It doesn’t mean I don’t...
Looking back at my posts on October 9th and August 3rd, I thought that if the 10-year Treasury yield could break above that 4% level, it could quickly get to the 5% level, and that’s what appeared to have happened. Remember as bond prices move higher, interest rate-sensitive bond prices decline....
On the August 1st post “Close to Prior Peaks and Resistance Levels”, I indicated that equity markets could struggle to go higher after a strong up move from October of last year and getting close to previous highs. I stated that if markets sold off from there, the 50-week moving average could...
Equity and bond markets sold off since August. You’re not surprised are you? You anticipated this could happen, didn’t you? Volatility in equity, bond, commodity, currency and other markets should be expected. This is especially the case in publicly-traded markets when millions of people...
Well, it didn’t take long for the equity markets to find a reason to decline from higher levels. As indicated in my posts on August 1st and July 31st, U.S. equity markets were close to resistance and peak levels, and that investors just needed some sort of shock for the equity markets to sell off...
We’re pretty close to prior market peaks and resistance levels in the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices. This may be an area where the U.S. large cap indices take a breather following huge rallies from the lows last year. From a technical perspective, we need sustained price movement above these...
The U.S. economy is very dynamic, with various factors driving supply and demand (see our Economics 101 course). In my opinion, the U.S. economy is like a very large ship, making it tough to change directions, even if various factors can impact it. If the economy is on a positive trajectory, it’s...
Equity markets have rallied to end June, which is also the end of the second quarter, a time when client statements are calculated. Consider FOMO “fear of missing out” and “window dressing” as driving the markets higher into the end of the month/quarter. Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO)...
Over the last week, I keep seeing/hearing that this is the most hated stock market rally ever. Give me a break. The people that think this is the most hated rally are those that have continued to indicate the market will decline to last year’s market lows, or that have missed a lot of the rally...
There is always something that investors are concerned about. Now it’s the debt ceiling and the U.S. government’s willingness to pay its bills. This show has happened before and we have not formally defaulted on any of our debt in the past and I doubt we will this time around. Anything is...
Two weeks ago, everything “seemed” fine. Markets were still focusing on higher inflation numbers in January, and were pricing in a Federal Reserve fed funds rate hike of up to 50 bps (0.50%) at the next Fed meeting. Now the narrative has quickly changed (“Look – A Squirrel!”)....
Whenever I talk about technicals, particularly moving averages, I often use the term “squiggly lines”. Moving averages are literally lines on a chart that are automatically drawn/calculated, taking the average price of an investment over a specific time period. At a high level, these moving...
I recently saw an e-mail from a random firm that essentially stated that the markets were going to crash and to “click here” for the one investment that you need to protect from this big crash. Please do not fall for this garbage. Anyone can send and e-mail, be on TV, the radio, in a conversation...
You don’t have to do it. You do not have to be tactical in your investment strategy. You do not need to try to outperform the market. You do not need to figure out which investment does better than another one. That is all a fallacy. The goal of investing should be to try to generate returns in...
It’s that time of the year and Wall Street strategists offer their 2023 outlook for the S&P 500 Index year end target. It’s that time of the year when smart people, discuss with other smart people, look at a lot of data and come up with a guess. Yes, a guess. Let’s keep this post...
With a new year brings higher contribution limits and income adjustments across a number of advantaged investment accounts, including retirement plans (401ks, etc.), IRAs, HSAs and 529 plans. Make sure you check to see how you can take advantage of the new updates on these great saving and investing...
I’m part of a group that tries to make financial advisors better by sharing insights with each other. The topic came up in regards to how other advisors view international equity exposure. Some advisors had a heavier international allocation, others had very little, and one advisor claimed that...
Private funds are generally a pooling of investors’ assets into a fund that an investment manager takes to invest in different asset classes. These private funds often invest in illiquid investments, including real estate, non-publicly traded companies or special debt/bond agreements. Historically,...
Inflation is on the minds of everyone with headlines focused on the year-over-year number. CPI (Consumer Price Index) was 7.7% higher in October year-over-year, which sounds like a high number (it is), but investors may want to focus on the month-over-month number, which was 0.4%. If you annualize that...
I recently had a call with a representative from an investment strategy that focuses on investing in mining companies equities. This fund manages almost $2 billion in assets. I’ve covered precious metals and precious metals equity funds for a while. Investing in gold never made sense to me. Based...
Setting correct expectations is key when investing and when working with a financial advisor. In a business of helping clients achieve their financial goals, there can be decisions by clients whether to continue working with a financial advisor or to find a different financial advisor to work with. In...
Just a quick part 2 to the previous post about how the market could rally, now significantly decline. Remember, markets don’t always move based on long-term fundamentals. Sometimes it’s just based on news events or market technicals. The 3% sell off in the U.S. equity markets may have been...
I recently met a new couple at a party this last weekend. In our group, the husband of the new couple asked what we all did for a living. When I stated that I was a investment portfolio manager at a wealth management firm, he came back to me in front of the group and asked my thoughts on allocations...
I recently had a deep conversation with an experienced financial advisor about the backtested performance of a couple of model portfolios that were presented. He mentioned to me that the performance looked really attractive, including one model that showed backtested performance of no negative annual...
Shouldn’t the equity markets sell off because we just have to be in a recession? Earnings have been bad, shouldn’t the market crash? The Fed just raised the fed funds rate 75 basis points (0.75%), shouldn’t that be bad for the equity markets? Aren’t the media heads talking about...
I recently had a discussion with an experienced financial advisor about the bond markets. He believed that bonds would sell off when the U.S. Federal Reserve raised the fed funds rate at the next meeting, which was widely anticipated. He thought that when the Fed raised the fed funds rate, yields across...
As I speak with various financial advisors, investment professionals, friends, family, etc. about the markets, I continue to reiterate that everyone has an opinion. I’ve used the phrase “nobody knows shit” (sorry for the vulgarity) multiple times in the last couple of months, so I thought...
Yesterday I had lunch with an experienced, successful financial advisor. We touched on a number of topics, but started to share our ideas about the markets. This discussion was a great example of different Investor Types, which you can learn more about in our Lessons. The advisor I was speaking with...
Treasury Series I (inflation) savings bonds have been all the rage with inflation hitting highs not seen in decades. I’m not going to go into detail about I Bonds as you can find a lot of great up to date information on the Treasury Direct website: https://www.treasurydirect.gov/savings-bonds/i-bonds/...
What a perfect topic to start Kulwicki Insights! R-E-C-E-S-S-I-O-N A recession is a word used to indicate an economic slowdown. That’s it. A definition often used for a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth. This technical definition of a recession is a backward looking...
Eric Kulwicki CFA®, CFP®
Investment Consultant
Portfolio Manager
Wealth Advisor
(262) 798-7979
[email protected]
Intrua Financial
675 North Barker Road
Suite 220
Brookfield, WI 53045
www.intrua.com