China is one of the largest economies in the world and its influence in the global economy is significant, so investors should consider paying attention. I manage a number of different strategies for clients, including strategies with exposure to international markets. Part of this exposure to international markets can be exposure to Chinese equities, so
Quick Look: Chinese Equities Read More »
Solid Economic Data Helps Drive Risk Assets Higher in Q1 Equity and credit markets rallied in Q1 as strong economic data and solid corporate earnings provided investors with cover to continue to support risk assets. Last year economists and investors believed that higher interest rates could push the U.S. economy into a potential recession, but
Market Update – Q1 2024 Read More »
Let’s take a Q1 review of the strategies I manage for clients.
Investment Strategies Update – Q1 2024 Read More »
Equity markets continue to chug higher and bonds remain choppy, but there are some potential opportunities to consider for longer-term investors.
Outlook & Positioning – April 5, 2024 Read More »
Feeling a bit nervous? Maybe fears of a sell off? Maybe even a little FOMO (fear of missing out)? The three popular U.S. large cap equity indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Industrial Average) have all recently hit new all-time highs. When you throw in dividends from a total return perspective, the highs are
Nervous at the bottom? Nervous at the top? Read More »
Ok, let’s try this again: Wall Street S&P 500 Index year-end forecasts for 2024. Remember last year, in my post dated Wall Street Strategists’ 2023 Outlook (Guess) on January 15, 2023, I listed various Wall Street firms’ forecasts for the year-end 2023 value of the S&P 500 Index. I never like these forecasts, but it
Wall Street Strategists’ Guesses for 2024 Read More »
Wall Street strategists dedicate significant time and effort to forecasting financial markets with some sense of precision. In my post last January 15th, 2023 titled “Wall Street Strategists’ 2023 Outlook (Guess)”, I indicated that Wall Street strategist forecasts were just guesses and putting any real faith in them may be futile. Below are the forecasts
Wall Street Strategists’ 2023 Forecast Review – Ouch! Read More »
We made it to another year! It’s time to reflect on 2023 with all the ups and downs personally and in the financial markets. Hopefully we’ve all learned something and can take that forward to better ourselves and others. I love life and try to be a perpetual optimist, so here’s to a great 2024
When investing, I know it can be tough to remain patient. Media headlines of doom or boom, with market swings of big drawdowns or huge rallies can make even the most experienced investors frazzled, let alone those without much day-to-day investment experience. My belief has been that at some point, inflation would come down from
Investment Patience is a Virtue Read More »
Just a reminder that I’m personally not a fan of investing in gold. I prefer investments that can generate cash flow directly and am less interested in hoping for price movement on assets. Gold doesn’t generate cash flow directly, so I don’t invest in it. It doesn’t mean I don’t pay attention to it or
Looking back at my posts on October 9th and August 3rd, I thought that if the 10-year Treasury yield could break above that 4% level, it could quickly get to the 5% level, and that’s what appeared to have happened. Remember as bond prices move higher, interest rate-sensitive bond prices decline. U.S. Treasury 10-Year Yield
Bond Yield Trading Range Recap Read More »
On the August 1st post “Close to Prior Peaks and Resistance Levels”, I indicated that equity markets could struggle to go higher after a strong up move from October of last year and getting close to previous highs. I stated that if markets sold off from there, the 50-week moving average could be an area
Equity Trading Range Recap Read More »
Equity and bond markets sold off since August. You’re not surprised are you? You anticipated this could happen, didn’t you? Volatility in equity, bond, commodity, currency and other markets should be expected. This is especially the case in publicly-traded markets when millions of people and trillions of dollars can move in and out of the
Market Volatility: You’re Not Surprised Are You? Read More »
Well, it didn’t take long for the equity markets to find a reason to decline from higher levels. As indicated in my posts on August 1st and July 31st, U.S. equity markets were close to resistance and peak levels, and that investors just needed some sort of shock for the equity markets to sell off
U.S. Debt Rating Downgrade: It’s All Relative Read More »
We’re pretty close to prior market peaks and resistance levels in the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices. This may be an area where the U.S. large cap indices take a breather following huge rallies from the lows last year. From a technical perspective, we need sustained price movement above these peaks in order to
Close to Prior Peaks and Resistance Levels Read More »
The U.S. economy is very dynamic, with various factors driving supply and demand (see our Economics 101 course). In my opinion, the U.S. economy is like a very large ship, making it tough to change directions, even if various factors can impact it. If the economy is on a positive trajectory, it’s tough to reverse
U.S. Economic Growth: Slow and Steady Read More »
Equity markets have rallied to end June, which is also the end of the second quarter, a time when client statements are calculated. Consider FOMO “fear of missing out” and “window dressing” as driving the markets higher into the end of the month/quarter. Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) Remember, investors, whether less experienced or very
FOMO and Window Dressing Read More »
Over the last week, I keep seeing/hearing that this is the most hated stock market rally ever. Give me a break. The people that think this is the most hated rally are those that have continued to indicate the market will decline to last year’s market lows, or that have missed a lot of the
The Most Hated Rally? Oh C’mon! Read More »
There is always something that investors are concerned about. Now it’s the debt ceiling and the U.S. government’s willingness to pay its bills. This show has happened before and we have not formally defaulted on any of our debt in the past and I doubt we will this time around. Anything is possible, but even
Ok, Now the Debt Ceiling Read More »
Two weeks ago, everything “seemed” fine. Markets were still focusing on higher inflation numbers in January, and were pricing in a Federal Reserve fed funds rate hike of up to 50 bps (0.50%) at the next Fed meeting. Now the narrative has quickly changed (“Look – A Squirrel!”). Fast forward to today, two regional banks
Hey, Look Over Here! (Recent Bank Failures) Read More »
