SUMMARY Remember volatility? Here we are again. Following the Republican sweep in the November elections, investors were optimistic about the potential for a strong business environment under Republican leadership. I’m not going to rehash my commentary on and concerns with the potential issues surrounding tariffs, government spending cuts, immigration/deportation, inflation pressures, etc., but these are
Outlook & Positioning – March 17, 2025 Read More »
Following the November U.S. elections, there was a general sense of investor bullishness based on what I considered a “default” belief that Republicans are good for the economy and risk assets. My concern was that even with a Republican sweep of the November elections, there was still a ton of uncertainty around inflation, tariffs, taxes,
Political Uncertainty and Weaker Economic Data Impacting Financial Markets Read More »
Strong Year for U.S. Equities; Bonds Were Mixed 2024 was another strong year for investors in the U.S. equity market. The S&P 500 Index ended the year up 25.0% and the NASDAQ 100 Index was up 25.9%. Smaller U.S. companies lagged large caps in 2024, with the Russell 2000 Index rallying 11.5%.1 The U.S. equity
Market Update – Q4 2024 Read More »
As an investment consultant and portfolio manager for different clients, I manage a number of different investment strategies. Once you understand my investment philosophy, you’ll understand why I manage these strategies the way I do. I share the investment commentary on these strategies here. U.S. CORE STRATEGIES The U.S. Core strategies provide long-term exposure to
Investment Strategies Update – Q4 2024 Read More »
Well, it’s that time of year again to take a look at Wall Street strategists’ year-end S&P 500 Index guesses (forecasts). Without looking, how do you think they did? For the record, I don’t envy the strategists’ job having to provide a price target for the S&P 500 Index, and I’m probably sure they don’t
Wall Street Strategists’ Forecasts 2024/2025 Read More »
SUMMARY Well, the uncertainty of the elections is finally over, but the uncertainty of government policies remains. For the moment, investors are giving the Republican majority the benefit of the doubt. In simplistic terms, without doing any deep work and taking a leap of faith, investors will tend to assume that a Republican majority across
Outlook & Positioning – December 11, 2024 Read More »
I’ve had family and friends ask me about Bitcoin lately. I’m not surprised as the broader media picked it up that Bitcoin reached $100,000 in price. Since people I care about wanted to know what I thought, I felt the need to provide a note about it. As always, this isn’t advice, it’s just my
Bitcoin: My Thoughts and Experience Read More »
This is the Part 2 follow-up to my first post on the elections, titled Don’t Let the Emotions of Politics Impact Your Investment Decisions posted on November 16, 2024. Now that we have confirmation that the Republican party controls the White House, Senate and House of Representatives, there is a higher probability that the Republican
After the Election: Setting the Goalposts Read More »
Ok. Sometimes I really get an urge to say something. This is especially the case when it comes to politics and the financial markets. Politics can be emotional. I totally get it. I’m not a fan of the tribalism when it comes to politics. I have opinions, and so do others. Based on our own
Don’t Let The Emotions of Politics Impact Your Investment Decisions Read More »
Ok, I’m seeing more commercials for gold bars and coins, so I think it’s time to touch base on gold again. The Bloomberg Gold Subindex (Total Return) is up over 34% year-to-date as of 10/30/31, so gold-related companies getting on the commercial bandwagon now again to sell past performance to retail investors is not a
Gold Commercials Are Back, So Time to Revisit Gold Read More »
As an investment consultant and portfolio manager for different clients, I manage a number of different investment strategies. Once you understand my investment philosophy, you’ll understand why I manage these strategies the way I do. I share the investment commentary on these strategies here. U.S. CORE STRATEGIES The U.S. Core strategies provide long-term exposure to
Investment Strategies Update – Q3 2024 Read More »
Strong Equity and Bond Market Performance in Q3 Diversified investors were rewarded in Q3 as both equities and bonds rallied in the quarter. Supportive economic data and the anticipation of Fed rate cuts provided tailwinds for the financial markets. Equities were volatile during the quarter but showed resilience, with performance broadening out by the end
Market Update – Q3 2024 Read More »
The Milwaukee Brewers just lost the MLB Wild Card Series to the New York Mets. The Mets are moving on in the playoffs and the Brewers’ season has come to an end. I was actually at Game 1 with a great friend of mine, but Games 2 and 3 had me thinking about investing, as
Investing: Swinging at the Fat Pitches Down the Middle Read More »
SUMMARY Volatility finally picked up in the equity markets over the last couple of months. Patient investors waiting for a better opportunity and looking to add risk may have been rewarded if they “bought the dip”. In August we finally had the correction in artificial intelligence-related stocks, which I had been waiting for. Prior to
Outlook & Positioning – September 20, 2024 Read More »
Here Comes the Vol(-atility), Doo-Doo-Doo-Doo. Here Comes the Vol, and I say, it’s alright. A simple Beatles tune, but like the sun, volatility can rise up after being down for a while. But unlike the sun, the timing and frequency of volatility rising and falling are not consistently predictable. As you may have noticed, volatility
Here Comes the Vol, Doo Doo Doo Doo Read More »
As an investment consultant and portfolio manager for different clients, I manage a number of different investment strategies. Once you understand my investment philosophy, you’ll understand why I manage these strategies the way I do. I share the investment commentary on these strategies here. U.S. CORE STRATEGIES The U.S. Core strategies provide long-term exposure to
Investment Strategies Update – Q2 2024 Read More »
Mixed Equity Performance, Solid Bond Income Support in Q2 Equity markets were mixed in Q2 as high-quality, large U.S. companies tied to technology and artificial intelligence continued to drive market performance. Other cyclical areas of the market were a bit more challenged. Bond investors continued to be rewarded with higher yields and income generation. Interest
Market Update – Q2 2024 Read More »
SUMMARY Just choppin’ around, except for AI. Equity and bond markets continue to chop around, with continued strength in artificial intelligence-related technology/semiconductor stocks. Even stocks in the utilities sector rallied strongly for a bit under the narrative that artificial intelligence support will require significant energy needs. Energy stocks also rallied strongly until OPEC+ announced no
Outlook & Positioning – June 13, 2024 Read More »
Ok, so it’s getting old posting about this, but with the S&P 500 Index up strongly this year to 5308 on the index, we’ve started to see Wall Street strategists increasing their year-end forecast for the index. It never fails. Market is up = Strategists increase their year-end targets Market is down = Strategists decrease
Market Rallies -> Strategists Raise Forecasts Read More »
China is one of the largest economies in the world and its influence in the global economy is significant, so investors should consider paying attention. I manage a number of different strategies for clients, including strategies with exposure to international markets. Part of this exposure to international markets can be exposure to Chinese equities, so
Quick Look: Chinese Equities Read More »
