Here we go again. Wall Street strategists continue to chase the market, this time adjusting their year-end target forecasts for the S&P 500 Index lower after the market declined. Last year, they chased the market higher, increasing their forecasts after the market rallied. Below is a list of Wall Street firms and their 2025 year-end […]
Wall Street Strategists’ Guesses Follow Markets Lower Read More »
Following the November U.S. elections, there was a general sense of investor bullishness based on what I considered a “default” belief that Republicans are good for the economy and risk assets. My concern was that even with a Republican sweep of the November elections, there was still a ton of uncertainty around inflation, tariffs, taxes,
Political Uncertainty and Weaker Economic Data Impacting Financial Markets Read More »
Well, it’s that time of year again to take a look at Wall Street strategists’ year-end S&P 500 Index guesses (forecasts). Without looking, how do you think they did? For the record, I don’t envy the strategists’ job having to provide a price target for the S&P 500 Index, and I’m probably sure they don’t
Wall Street Strategists’ Forecasts 2024/2025 Read More »
SUMMARY Well, the uncertainty of the elections is finally over, but the uncertainty of government policies remains. For the moment, investors are giving the Republican majority the benefit of the doubt. In simplistic terms, without doing any deep work and taking a leap of faith, investors will tend to assume that a Republican majority across
Outlook & Positioning – December 11, 2024 Read More »
I’ve had family and friends ask me about Bitcoin lately. I’m not surprised as the broader media picked it up that Bitcoin reached $100,000 in price. Since people I care about wanted to know what I thought, I felt the need to provide a note about it. As always, this isn’t advice, it’s just my
Bitcoin: My Thoughts and Experience Read More »
Ok. Sometimes I really get an urge to say something. This is especially the case when it comes to politics and the financial markets. Politics can be emotional. I totally get it. I’m not a fan of the tribalism when it comes to politics. I have opinions, and so do others. Based on our own
Don’t Let The Emotions of Politics Impact Your Investment Decisions Read More »
Ok, so it’s getting old posting about this, but with the S&P 500 Index up strongly this year to 5308 on the index, we’ve started to see Wall Street strategists increasing their year-end forecast for the index. It never fails. Market is up = Strategists increase their year-end targets Market is down = Strategists decrease
Market Rallies -> Strategists Raise Forecasts Read More »
China is one of the largest economies in the world and its influence in the global economy is significant, so investors should consider paying attention. I manage a number of different strategies for clients, including strategies with exposure to international markets. Part of this exposure to international markets can be exposure to Chinese equities, so
Quick Look: Chinese Equities Read More »
Solid Economic Data Helps Drive Risk Assets Higher in Q1 Equity and credit markets rallied in Q1 as strong economic data and solid corporate earnings provided investors with cover to continue to support risk assets. Last year economists and investors believed that higher interest rates could push the U.S. economy into a potential recession, but
Market Update – Q1 2024 Read More »
Feeling a bit nervous? Maybe fears of a sell off? Maybe even a little FOMO (fear of missing out)? The three popular U.S. large cap equity indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Industrial Average) have all recently hit new all-time highs. When you throw in dividends from a total return perspective, the highs are
Nervous at the bottom? Nervous at the top? Read More »
Ok, let’s try this again: Wall Street S&P 500 Index year-end forecasts for 2024. Remember last year, in my post dated Wall Street Strategists’ 2023 Outlook (Guess) on January 15, 2023, I listed various Wall Street firms’ forecasts for the year-end 2023 value of the S&P 500 Index. I never like these forecasts, but it
Wall Street Strategists’ Guesses for 2024 Read More »
Wall Street strategists dedicate significant time and effort to forecasting financial markets with some sense of precision. In my post last January 15th, 2023 titled “Wall Street Strategists’ 2023 Outlook (Guess)”, I indicated that Wall Street strategist forecasts were just guesses and putting any real faith in them may be futile. Below are the forecasts
Wall Street Strategists’ 2023 Forecast Review – Ouch! Read More »
We made it to another year! It’s time to reflect on 2023 with all the ups and downs personally and in the financial markets. Hopefully we’ve all learned something and can take that forward to better ourselves and others. I love life and try to be a perpetual optimist, so here’s to a great 2024
When investing, I know it can be tough to remain patient. Media headlines of doom or boom, with market swings of big drawdowns or huge rallies can make even the most experienced investors frazzled, let alone those without much day-to-day investment experience. My belief has been that at some point, inflation would come down from
Investment Patience is a Virtue Read More »
Just a reminder that I’m personally not a fan of investing in gold. I prefer investments that can generate cash flow directly and am less interested in hoping for price movement on assets. Gold doesn’t generate cash flow directly, so I don’t invest in it. It doesn’t mean I don’t pay attention to it or
Looking back at my posts on October 9th and August 3rd, I thought that if the 10-year Treasury yield could break above that 4% level, it could quickly get to the 5% level, and that’s what appeared to have happened. Remember as bond prices move higher, interest rate-sensitive bond prices decline. U.S. Treasury 10-Year Yield
Bond Yield Trading Range Recap Read More »
On the August 1st post “Close to Prior Peaks and Resistance Levels”, I indicated that equity markets could struggle to go higher after a strong up move from October of last year and getting close to previous highs. I stated that if markets sold off from there, the 50-week moving average could be an area
Equity Trading Range Recap Read More »
Equity and bond markets sold off since August. You’re not surprised are you? You anticipated this could happen, didn’t you? Volatility in equity, bond, commodity, currency and other markets should be expected. This is especially the case in publicly-traded markets when millions of people and trillions of dollars can move in and out of the
Market Volatility: You’re Not Surprised Are You? Read More »
Well, it didn’t take long for the equity markets to find a reason to decline from higher levels. As indicated in my posts on August 1st and July 31st, U.S. equity markets were close to resistance and peak levels, and that investors just needed some sort of shock for the equity markets to sell off
U.S. Debt Rating Downgrade: It’s All Relative Read More »
We’re pretty close to prior market peaks and resistance levels in the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices. This may be an area where the U.S. large cap indices take a breather following huge rallies from the lows last year. From a technical perspective, we need sustained price movement above these peaks in order to
Close to Prior Peaks and Resistance Levels Read More »
